US 2026 Midterms — House & Senate

3 November 2026 · uniform two-party swing from the 2024 House vote · polled races use their own polling average · data as of 5 October 2026
SWING TO DEMOCRATS
+25
EVEN
SWING TO REPUBLICANS
+25
House baseline
Democrats
0
±0
Republicans
0
±0
Independents
0
±0
Majority
218
—
Colour by
Only each pollster's latest poll in a race counts; its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll in that race. Left on auto, each race gets the site-wide rule, the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days, shown on its row (so a race polled once a month keeps its older polls in play); type a number to use one half-life everywhere. Greyed rows are superseded by a newer poll from the same firm. (D)/(R) = partisan sponsor or pollster.
Show:Click any hex (or a table row) to choose a race, then open this tab.

Methodology

House. Each district starts from its notional: the 2024 House result, except in the 9 states with new 2026 maps (TX, CA, FL, NC, OH, TN, LA, AL, UT), where it is the Harris–Trump 2024 margin on the new lines, so incumbency is not counted there. Missouri's new map was blocked by its Supreme Court (Prop A is on the ballot), so Missouri stays on its 2024 lines. Every district then moves by the same national swing: the generic-ballot average minus the 2024 House popular vote (D 47.1, R 49.5). With the poll average on, a district with its own polls (white dot) uses their average instead; those are mostly Democratic-sponsored internal polls, so treat them with care. District polls are on the 2026 lines; in "2024 result" mode they attach to the same-numbered old district.

Senate. Each seat starts from its last result (2020; the Florida and Ohio specials 2022) and moves by the national swing since that election, unless the race has its own polls. Holdovers: D 34 (including King and Sanders) and R 31; Republicans keep control at 50 seats through Vice President Vance.

Polls. Race polls and the generic-ballot aggregators are re-read from Wikipedia every 3 hours; a new poll is used once its cited article bears it out or it has stood unchanged there for 3 hours. Only each pollster's latest poll in a race counts, weighted down by age (the Polls tab has the half-life). The first polls came from RealClearPolling's latest-polls feed (22 Sep – 3 Oct) and pollster releases (Quinnipiac, Emerson, Marist, Marquette, YouGov, ActiVote, CBS).

Data. House 2024 results: 538 election-results archive (final RCV round in Alaska and Maine; uncontested or one-party seats use the Harris–Trump margin). Presidential 2024 margins by district on old and new lines: The Downballot / Dave's Redistricting exports via apantazi/redistricting_analysis (June 2026). Redistricting status: Wikipedia, "2025–2026 United States redistricting"; Missouri's map blocked 3 Sep 2026, Alabama's allowed by the Supreme Court 2 Jun 2026, Virginia's struck down 8 May 2026. Senate candidates and holdovers as of 5 Oct 2026 (including Mullin → DHS, Graham's death, Platner's withdrawal, and Cassidy and Cornyn losing renomination). Compass: OnTheIssues VoteMatch scores; * = estimate.