Taiwan 2028 General Election: electoral projection model

President and Legislative Yuan · January 2028 (date not yet set) · polling through 10 Jun 2026 · 2024 results by county and district · the president’s swing drives the party vote, which swings every district
President by plurality · 113 seats: 73 districts + 6 Indigenous + 34 list
Vote shares (% of valid votes)
Type a share or use the arrows. The president’s boxes set the presidential race in every county, by the swing picked below. Until you type in them, the party-list boxes follow: each party’s list vote moves the way its presidential ticket did (Lai → DPP, the KMT’s candidate → KMT, the TPP’s → TPP). The party-list vote then swings every district and both Indigenous constituencies, and shares the 34 list seats among parties on 5% or more.
Swing:
Polls used and weights
Half-life 14 days: how close the election is and how often Taiwan is polled.
How the average is made. The latest poll from each polling firm (by its fieldwork end date), weighted down by age: weights halve every 14 days before the newest poll, by the site-wide rule, the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days. Undecided voters and those who won’t vote or will spoil their ballot are left out, and the rest scaled to 100%. Only national three-way polls of a 2028 race count; polls of who the KMT should nominate, two-way match-ups and approval ratings don’t. The first was Storm Media’s for the Negative Vote Association (8–10 June 2026), which named Lu Shiow-yen for the KMT and Ko Wen-je for the TPP; the association campaigns for a ballot where you can also vote against a candidate, so it asked that too, and only its ordinary three-way question is used. Neither party has picked its candidate, so each poll’s names are in its row, and the boxes take the newest poll’s.
President · one round, most votes wins
Taiwan elects its president and vice president on one ticket, by plurality: whoever has the most votes wins, with no minimum share and no second round. The bar runs from the DPP on the left to the KMT on the right; the dotted line is half the vote.
One hex ≈ 100,000 votes (2024 turnout; every county at least one), so the map is sized by people, not land: Taipei and New Taipei fill the north, while Hualien and Taitung, a third of the island, are three hexes. Each county’s 2024 result is swung by the picked method, then all are scaled together until the national total matches the boxes.
Party compass
Where the tickets and parties sit on the economy (left → right) and on social values (progressive → conservative). Parties are placed by their grades on the 130 statements of the compass quiz, and each ticket at its party. Taiwan’s main divide, China and independence, is on neither axis, so the pan-green and pan-blue camps sit closer here than their rivalry would suggest.
A ticket (placed at its party)
Scales (0–10): Economic = role of the state in the economy, left → right. Social = progressive → conservative.
Source: each party answering the 130 statements of the compass quiz: the DPP on its record in government since 2016, the KMT on its 2008–16 record and, with the TPP, the 2024–26 Legislative Yuan majority’s votes, the TPP also on Ko Wen-je’s record as Taipei mayor, the NPP and TSP on their platforms and their legislators’ votes. The TSP’s economic grades are low confidence. Independents and the small parties aren’t graded.