Spain 2026 General Election: electoral projection model

Congress of Deputies · 29 November 2026 · polling through 25 Oct · 2023 results by province · national vote inputs drive a swing in every province, then D’Hondt

350 seats · 52 constituencies · 3% threshold in each

National vote (% of valid votes, blank ballots included)

Type a share or use the arrows. Each change is swung into every province from its 2023 result, by the method picked below. In each province, lists on 3% or more of the valid vote share its seats by D’Hondt; Ceuta and Melilla elect one deputy each, first past the post. Whatever the boxes leave over is Other, which wins no seats.

Swing:

Polls used and weights

Half-life 14 days: how close the election is and how often Spain is polled. Each firm’s latest poll counts; its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll.

How the average is made. The latest poll from each polling firm (by its fieldwork end date), weighted down by age: weights halve every 14 days before the newest poll, by the site-wide rule, the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days. Not every firm reports every list (several leave SALF or the smaller nationalists in “others”), so each list is averaged over the polls that do report it. A poll whose weight comes out under 1% is dropped and the rest renormalised, so an old poll can’t carry a list no current poll reports. The polls’ lists already match the 2026 ballot: PP includes UPN, Broad Front includes the Valencian Front (Compromís, with Podemos there) and Canarian People’s Unity, ERC includes Podem in Catalonia. Existe and Soria ¡Ya! aren’t polled and keep their 2023 vote. Parties’ own trackings (PSOE’s, 25 Oct) are not used: they publish three figures only. The CIS is left out of the average, as Faktor Plus is on our Serbia model and Channel 14 on Israel: since 2018, under José Félix Tezanos, a former member of the PSOE’s executive, the state pollster’s vote estimates have run well ahead of other firms for the PSOE. Its polls are still listed, and the “include CIS” scenario counts them. The average is applied to 2 decimals and adds up to exactly 100 with Other.

Labels:

One hex = one seat. Thick white lines are autonomous communities, thin ones provinces. In each province the seats run left → right in the same order every time.last seat filled in that province

* A province’s 2023 seats are notional: the 2023 votes run through this model on the 2026 lists, since Sumar’s seats can’t be split between the Broad Front and Podemos province by province. Split that way, Sumar’s vote wins 7 fewer seats (Podemos clears 3% nowhere), so the notional 2023 has PP 141, PSOE 123, ERC 8, PNV 6, Broad Front 24 and Podemos 0. The national seat changes elsewhere on the page are against the seats each list’s parties actually won. The Broad Front’s and Podemos’s 2023 vote shares are starred too: notional parts of Sumar’s. “New” = not on the 2023 ballot in that province: SALF was founded in 2024, and Adelante Andalucía stood only in Cádiz.

Show:

Seats run left → right by the site-wide rule: an invisible 45° line through Spain’s average list on the compass quiz (every list with a 2023 vote counting once, whatever its size), each list placed by how far it sits from that line. The dashed line marks half-way; 176 is a majority. Shape = stance on the territorial model (triangle: independence; circle: keep or deepen self-government; square: recentralise), pattern = stance on the monarchy (lines: republican; checks: backs the Crown), as on the compass.

What happened to every list from the July 2023 election to the 2026 ballot: who governed, who backed Sánchez’s investiture, who split and who arrived. Hover the dots and the government bands for details.

Methodology

Swing: each list’s national change from its 2023 baseline is swung into every province where it stood, by the method picked:

Uniform moves it by the same number of points in each of those provinces (so a Catalan list’s national point is about six points in Catalonia),

Logit (default) moves it by the same amount on the log-odds scale, so a list on 40% moves more points than one on 4%, and

Proportional multiplies its share by the same factor. Every province is then scaled back to 100% and the swings re-fitted until the national totals match the boxes. SALF had no 2023 vote and Adelante Andalucía stood only in Cádiz, so they are spread like their most recent results: SALF like its 2024 European vote, Adelante like its 17 May 2026 Andalusian vote.

Seats: in each of the 50 provinces, lists on 3% or more of the valid vote (blank ballots included) share its seats by D’Hondt; on an exact tie the list with more votes there wins. Ceuta and Melilla elect one deputy each, first past the post.

Coalition builder: the dashed line is half the Congress; 176 is an absolute majority. An investiture needs that on the first ballot, or more yes than no votes on the second.

Hex order: each province is filled column by column, left → right, in this order: .

Seats per province (Royal Decree 806/2026): 348 seats in 50 provinces, each with 2 and the other 248 shared by population, plus 1 each for Ceuta and Melilla. Madrid 38 (+1 on 2023), Barcelona 32, Valencia 16, Alicante and Seville 12, Málaga 11, Murcia 10, Cádiz 8 (−1), and so on down to Soria’s 2.

2023 baseline: the 23 July 2023 Congress results by province, as shares of the valid vote (Ministry of the Interior); run through this model on the 2023 split they reproduce the 2023 Congress seat for seat (PP 137, PSOE 121, Vox 33, Sumar 31, ERC 7, Junts 7, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, BNG, CCa and UPN 1).

Seat changes: nationally, against the seats each 2026 list’s parties won in 2023: PP 138 with UPN’s, and Sumar’s 31 as the Broad Front’s 26 and Podemos’s 5 (its deputies when it left Sumar’s group). Province by province, against a notional 2023 (see the Provinces tab), because Sumar’s seats can’t be split there.

2026 lists mapped to 2023: PP ← PP plus UPN (on the PP’s list in Navarre now); Broad Front and Podemos ← Sumar, which they ran in together in 2023: Podemos had 5 of Sumar’s 31 deputies when it left in December 2023, so it takes 5/31 of Sumar’s vote nationally, shared between provinces like the Podemos : Sumar split of the 2024 European election there. Where Podemos runs inside another list in 2026 its part goes to that list: ERC in Catalonia (Podem), the Valencian Front in the Valencian Community and Canarian People’s Unity in the Canaries, both counted with the Broad Front, which also takes New Canaries’ 2023 vote. These 2023 figures for the Broad Front and Podemos, and so their 2023 seats, are notional. Other = lists not on this page, including Jaén Merece Más, Por Ávila, UPL and CUP, which aren’t running, and blank ballots.

The compass: where these positions come from. Each list is graded as if it answered our compass quiz, the same 130 statements you answer, so your own result is directly comparable (use “Show my result”). The PSOE is graded on its record in government since 2018; Podemos and the Broad Front’s parties on Sumar’s record in it and their 2026 platforms; the PP on its platform and its regional governments; the rest on their platforms and votes in Congress. Statements are read locally: “Indigenous” and minority representation = the historic nationalities (Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia), minority languages = Catalan, Basque and Galician in official use, “English as the official language” = Castilian as the only official and school language, and settling historical claims generously = Catalan and Basque self-government claims (fiscal deals, the amnesty, a referendum). Existe and Soria ¡Ya! share the Empty Spain platform and differ only where their own records do: Teruel Existe on its Congress votes of 2019–23 (the labour reform and the government’s decree-laws, such as the caps on rent updates and gas prices; it abstained on euthanasia) and its fight against macro wind and solar parks, Soria ¡Ya! on its call for public health care in Soria. Both want tax privileges to bring firms to their provinces.

Expert survey: the switch above the compass shows the other source, the Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2024, where political scientists rate each party directly. The two agree on the big parties (PSOE 4.1 / 3.4 on the quiz, 3.9 / 2.9 with the experts; PP 7.9 / 7.1 and 7.3 / 7.0). They differ most on PNV, Junts and Canarian Coalition, which the experts put about two points more conservative, because they count nationalism as traditional; the quiz reads promoting Basque, Catalan or Canarian identity and language as minority rights.

Territory: independence = ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, BNG; recentralise = Vox, SALF (Vox would abolish the autonomous communities); everyone else keeps or deepens the State of the Autonomies.

Monarchy: republican = the Broad Front, Podemos, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, BNG, Adelante Andalucía; backs the Crown = PP, PSOE, Vox; the rest take no clear line. Treat every position as approximate (±1 point).

Where each list sits on the economy (left → right) and on social values (progressive → conservative). Bubble size = national vote; faded = no seats. Click a bubble to add it to the coalition.

List	Quizecon. / social	Experts (CHES 2024)econ. / social	Territory	Head of state

Where these positions come from, how the quiz compares with the expert survey, and the territory and monarchy stances: Methodology tab. Treat every position as approximate (±1 point).