Serbia 2026 Parliamentary Election: electoral projection model

National Assembly · 25 October 2026 · polling through 22 Oct · one national list, D’Hondt

250 seats · 1 national constituency · 3% threshold · minority lists exempt

National vote (% of valid votes)

Type a share or use the arrows. Lists on 3% or more share all 250 seats by D’Hondt; national-minority lists are exempt from the threshold. Whatever the boxes leave over is Other, which wins no seats.

Polls used and weights

Half-life 51 days: how often Serbia is polled. Each firm’s latest poll counts; its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll.

Poll weights. The latest poll from each polling firm. Weights halve every 51 days before the newest poll (Ipsos, 22 Oct), by the site-wide rule, the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days, so sparse polling keeps older polls in play. Polling in Serbia is sparse and contested: the opposition and independent media accuse Faktor Plus and Ipsos of leaning to the government, and NSPM and CRTA are closer to the opposition. Faktor Plus is left out of the average, as Channel 14 is on our Israel model: its polls sit at the government-friendly end of the range. Its polls are still listed, and the “include Faktor Plus” scenario shows the average with it counted.

Live results

Seats run left → right in groups: the Student List and the opposition; the national-minority lists that side with the opposition, the neutral ones and those that side with the government; then the government-aligned lists. Within each group they follow the site-wide left–right rule (an invisible 45° line through Serbia’s average list on the compass quiz). The dashed line marks half-way; 126 is a majority. Shape = stance on joining the EU, pattern = stance on EU sanctions against Russia, as on the compass. Click seats, sidebar entries or the coalition bar to build a coalition.

List	Vote %	2023	Change	Threshold	Seats	2023	Change

2023 figures are each list’s own 2023 list, as a share of valid votes (Republic Electoral Commission). United Serbia is compared with Vučić’s “Serbia Must Not Stop” plus the Serbian Radical Party, which ran separately in 2023 and is on his list now. * European Serbia’s 2023 figure is its part of the opposition alliance Serbia Against Violence (24.32%, 65 seats): SSP (15 MPs) ran in it and SRCE (9) has merged into the list, so 24 of 65, or 8.98%. The Student List is new and has no 2023 figure; the rest of SPN’s vote (its other parties, which now back the Student List rather than run) counts in Other, like MI–GIN’s. The two lists are also compared with SPN as a whole, in the line under them. The Albanian Coalition is compared with the two Albanian lists of 2023 (0.36% + 0.09%). Hover a row for what each list was in 2023.

What happened to every list that won seats in 2023: in government (thick), backing the government without ministers (striped), in the Assembly in opposition (medium) or outside it (dashed), with the splits and alliances that produced the 2026 ballot. The right-hand column shows each list’s 2026 successor with its projected vote and seats. Hover the dots and government blocks for details.

Methodology

From polls to seats. Each poll is first mapped onto the 2026 ballot: the SRS now runs on Vučić’s United Serbia list; People’s Serbia (NPS), the Green–Left Front, the Democratic Party and Kreni-Promeni withdrew and back the Student List, so their readings are added to it; SSP and SRCE readings count toward European Serbia. The five lists the polls track (United Serbia, SPS, the Student List, European Serbia, Authentic Right) take their averaged shares.

Everything else is the polls’ own “others” figure, and it is shared out like this: every list that is running again keeps its 2023 vote, scaled up or down by how far the others vote has moved since 2023 (). That covers Gajić’s Narodna, the Hungarian SVM, Zukorlić’s SPP, SDA Sandžaka, the Albanian Coalition, the Russian Party and Bulić’s Coalition of Powers. The 2023 others are counted the way the polls count them now, as every small list they lump together: 6.57%. MI–GIN (4.82%) and National Gathering (2.83%) are left out of it, because 2023 polls reported them on their own and they aren’t running. What is left is

Other: lists that are new or ran inside someone else’s list in 2023 (Karić, Ljajić’s SDP–CDP, the Liberal-Green Party, “Pa, This is for You”, Russian–Serbian Unity, Mother Serbia–Gruda). Other wins no seats. Until 24 Oct 2026 all of it was one “Others” entry that won seats in proportion, and before 18 Oct each small list had a hand estimate.

Seats: all 250 by D’Hondt over one national constituency. Lists need 3% to take part. National-minority lists are exempt, and while under 3% their quotients are multiplied by 1.35. The 3% is legally counted on all votes cast, invalid ones included; with about 2–3% invalid ballots, that is roughly 3.1% of valid votes, so a list sitting just over 3% here is closer to the line than it looks.

2023 baseline: Republic Electoral Commission, 17 Dec 2023, as a share of valid votes (3,710,978): Serbia Must Not Stop 48.07% (129), Serbia Against Violence 24.32% (65), SPS–JS–Zeleni 6.73% (18), NADA 5.16% (13), MI–GIN 4.82% (13), National Gathering 2.83%, SVM 1.74% (6), SRS 1.50%, Good Morning Serbia 1.21%, Narodna 0.90%, SPP–DSHV 0.78% (2), SDA Sandžaka 0.59% (2), Political Struggle of the Albanians Continues 0.36% (1), RS–NKPJ 0.31% (1), LDP 0.25%, Coalition for Peace and Tolerance 0.18%, Nova and partners 0.15%, Albanian Democratic Alternative 0.09%. The others vote of 2023, against which the polls’ others are compared, is everything outside the five polled lists’ 2023 lists: 100 − 48.07 − 1.50 − 24.32 − 6.73 − 5.16 = 14.22%.

The compass: where these positions come from. Each list is graded as if it answered our compass quiz, the same statements you answer, so you can compare your own result directly. Lists in government are graded on their 2024–26 record; the rest on their platforms and Assembly votes. The Expert survey button shows the other source: Chapel Hill’s 2019 survey of political scientists, the latest that covers Serbia (its 2024 round doesn’t). The experts rate parties directly instead of answering statements, the data is six years older, and it covers only four of today’s lists. Where both exist they mostly agree: Vučić’s list and SPS land within half a point. The quiz puts European Serbia about a point further right than the experts put SSP, and Gajić’s list well to the right of where they put Narodna stranka before it turned against EU membership. Statements are read locally: “official language” = Serbian in Cyrillic, “minority languages” and minority representation = Hungarian, Bosniak, Albanian and the other national minorities, and settling historical claims = normalising relations with Kosovo. Because “Nation & culture” is read as minority rights, the Bosniak and Albanian lists score more progressive than their views on family and religion alone would put them. The Student List has no party programme: it is graded only on its published demands (accountability for the Novi Sad canopy, free media, clean voter rolls, university funding) and as neutral everywhere else, so it sits near the middle of both axes. Karić’s list and Ljajić’s SDP–CDP had no list of their own in 2023, so they get no vote here (they are inside Other) but stay on the compass. Bulić’s Coalition of Powers isn’t graded. Treat every position as approximate (±1 point).

Where each list sits on the economy (left → right) and on social values (progressive → conservative). Bubble size = projected seats (lists without seats are small and faded). Shape = stance on joining the EU; pattern = stance on EU sanctions against Russia. Click a list to add it to or remove it from your coalition. Hover for details.

How each list is graded, and how the quiz compares with the expert survey: Methodology tab. Treat every position as approximate (±1 point).