Quebec 2026 General Election: electoral projection model

44th National Assembly · 5 October 2026 · new 127-riding map · notional 2022 results by riding · province-wide vote inputs drive a uniform (or proportional) swing · first past the post

127 seats · 64 for a majority · 15 regions

Province-wide vote (% of valid votes)

Each change from 2022 is applied to every riding's notional 2022 result, then the party with the most votes wins the riding.

Swing:

One hex = one riding, coloured by the projected winner; the letters are the riding's code (hover for its name and numbers).gain: changes hands vs the notional 2022 resultLight shade = won by less than 5 pointsbig city (name shows when you hover)

Party (left → right)	Leader	Vote %	vs 2022	Seats	Notional 2022	Change	2022 as elected	At dissolution

Show:

Seats:

Seats run left → right in the same ideological order as everywhere else. The dashed line marks half-way. The 2022 Assembly had 125 seats (63 for a majority); the 2026 map has 127 (64). “At formation” and “At dissolution” show the groups as they actually stood that day, with MNAs sitting as independents in grey beside the party they were elected for.

What happened to each party from the October 2022 election to the 2026 vote: governments, by-elections, leadership changes and MNAs who left their caucus. Hover the dots for details.

Left: each party's 2022 result. Right: the projection from the vote inputs at the top. Lanes run left-wing (top) → right-wing (bottom). Gold frames = won seats (left: in 2022; right: in the projection). Sources: Élections Québec, Assemblée nationale, Wikipedia, CBC, La Presse, Global News.

Half-life daysOnly each firm's latest poll counts. Its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll, then is multiplied by the firm's track-record factor.

Track-record factor (from 338Canada's pollster ratings, which score firms on their final polls in recent Canadian elections): A+ = 1.0 (Léger), A = 0.9 (Nanos), A− = 0.8 (Research Co., Mainstreet, Pallas), B+ = 0.7 (Liaison, Segma). Synopsis is a new firm with no election record yet, so it gets the lowest factor, 0.7. Older polls from firms that have since polled again are listed faded and not used. Polls report decided voters; the button applies each party’s average to 2 decimals and puts the rest in Other.

Methodology

Swing method:

uniform (default) adds each party's province-wide change, in points, to its notional 2022 share in every riding; shares are clipped at zero and re-normalised only where a big fall would go negative.

Proportional multiplies each party's riding share by its new ÷ old province-wide vote, then re-normalises each riding to 100%. Uniform swing tends to wipe out a collapsing party in its weak seats and keep it alive in its strongest; proportional swing shrinks it everywhere at the same rate and grows small parties fastest where they were already strong.

Seats: first past the post in each riding.

Hex order: parties run left → right as: .

Map: the 2026 electoral map (127 ridings: Bellefeuille and Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie are new; 39 others had boundary changes and five were renamed in 2025, e.g. Laporte → Pierre-Laporte, Johnson → Daniel-Johnson).

2022 baseline: Élections Québec's official 2022 results, transposed onto the 2026 boundaries by Kyle Hutton for Qc125 where boundaries changed (they give CAQ 93, PLQ 20, QS 11, PQ 3; the actual 2022 result was CAQ 90, PLQ 21, QS 11, PQ 3 on 125 seats). Province-wide 2022 vote: CAQ 40.98%, QS 15.43%, PQ 14.61%, PLQ 14.37%, PCQ 12.91%, others 1.70%.

Regions follow Quebec's administrative regions (Granby and Brome-Missisquoi are in Estrie since 2021; Abitibi-Témiscamingue is grouped with Ungava, Bas-Saint-Laurent with Gaspésie–Îles). Change the party order in the PARTIES list.

The compass. Scales (0–10): Economic = left → right on the economy. Social = progressive → conservative. Sovereignty = 0 firmly federalist → 10 for independence.

Placement: no expert survey (like Chapel Hill) covers Quebec's provincial parties, so every Quebec score here is an estimate, judged on an OECD-wide scale and on each party's record (in government or in the Assembly) more than its promises: QS on the socialist left; the PQ centre-left on the economy but tougher than the Liberals on immigration, secularism and French; the Liberals centrist-liberal; the CAQ centre-right on the economy and conservative on identity (Bills 21 and 96); the PCQ libertarian-right.

Sovereignty stance: 7 or more = for independence (QS, PQ; the PQ promises a referendum in its first term, but not before 20 January 2029); 3 or less = federalist (PLQ, PCQ); in between = autonomist (CAQ: no referendum, but seeks more powers within Canada). Comparison parties are estimates on the same scale (French parties use Chapel Hill 2024 scores). White diamond = vote-weighted average Quebec party, from the current vote inputs.

for independence (sovereigntist)stay in Canada (federalist)stay in Canada, more powers for Quebec (autonomist)comparison party (Canada federal / other provinces / France)Bubble size = vote; faded = no seats. Click a bubble to add it to the coalition.

Party	Economic	Social	Sovereignty	Basis

Sovereignty: 7 or more = for independence, 3 or less = federalist, in between = autonomist. How each party is placed: Methodology tab.