Methodology
From votes to seats. The whole country is one constituency for the 150 seats. A list needs one full quota (1/150 of the valid vote, 0.67%) to take part; the qualifying lists then share all 150 seats by D’Hondt (the Kiesraad hands out the full quotas first and the remainder by largest averages, which comes to the same thing). List alliances (lijstverbindingen) were abolished in 2017. Run on the 2025 vote, this gives back the 2025 House seat for seat.
The poll average. Three firms poll regularly: Peil.nl (Maurice de Hond, seats only), Ipsos I&O and Verian (EenVandaag), which publish seats and vote shares. The latest poll from each firm counts, weighted by recency with the site-wide half-life rule (the longer of 1.3 × √(days to the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days). Where a poll publishes vote shares those are used; Peil.nl’s seats are turned into votes in proportion. The firms’ figures add up to 100% among the listed parties, leaving no room for the lists that won no seats, which took 1.42% in 2025; each poll is scaled down so that Other keeps at least that 1.42%. A list a poll doesn’t report (De Nederlandse Alliantie, in most polls) is left out of that list’s average rather than counted as zero, and the average is rounded to two decimals adding up to 100.00.
House now is the House of Representatives as it stands: D66 26, PRO 20 (the GroenLinks–PvdA group, renamed on 9 June 2026), PVV 19 and the Markuszower Group 7 (the seven MPs who left the PVV group on 20 January 2026; their party is De Nederlandse Alliantie), VVD 22, CDA 18, JA21 9, FvD 7, BBB 3 and Mona Keijzer 1 (she left the BBB group on 23 February 2026 and sits as an independent; in August she announced a party of her own), SGP 3, CU 3, Denk 3, PvdD 3, SP 3, 50PLUS 2 and Volt 1.
2025 baseline: Kiesraad, 29 October 2025, as a share of 10,571,990 valid votes: D66 16.94% (26), PVV 16.66% (26), VVD 14.24% (22), GroenLinks–PvdA 12.79% (20), CDA 11.79% (18), JA21 5.95% (9), FvD 4.54% (7), BBB 2.65% (4), Denk 2.37% (3), SGP 2.25% (3), PvdD 2.08% (3), CU 1.90% (3), SP 1.89% (3), 50PLUS 1.43% (2), Volt 1.10% (1); Other 1.42% (0), of which Bij1 0.38% and NSC 0.37%.
Left and right. The vote boxes, the sidebar and the seat chart follow the site-wide rule: an invisible 45° line on the compass quiz through the average list (each list with a 2025 vote counting once); lists below and left of it are left of centre, the rest right of centre, and the most moderate list heads each sidebar column. The Jetten cabinet (D66, VVD and CDA, a minority of 66 seats) is not a bloc of its own: it is a cabinet of compromise between D66 on the left of the line and the VVD and CDA on the right.
The compass. Three views. Compass quiz (the default): every list answers the same 104 everyday and 30 strong statements as Earth Elects’ quiz, graded on its 2025 manifesto, its votes in the House and, for D66, the VVD and the CDA, the Jetten cabinet’s coalition agreement, so your own quiz result can be placed among them. Expert survey: the 2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey, economic left–right (lrecon) and GAL–TAN (galtan), each 0–10; PRO is GroenLinks and the PvdA averaged, and JA21, 50PLUS and DNA were not rated. Kieskompas 2025: the positions the Kieskompas voting aid gave each list for the October 2025 election, on its left–right and progressive–conservative axes, read off its chart and put on 0–10; DNA did not exist yet. The markers are all circles; their pattern is the list’s stance on the EU, from the expert survey’s EU position (1–7): lines for 5 or more (pro-EU), checks for 3 or less (Eurosceptic), plain in between, and a ring where the stance is firm (6.5 or more, 1.5 or less). JA21, 50PLUS and DNA, which it didn’t rate, are graded by hand.