Latvia 2026 Saeima Election: electoral projection model

15th Saeima · 3 October 2026 · 2026 CVK seat split · 2022 results by constituency · national vote inputs drive a uniform swing + Sainte-Laguë

100 seats · 5 constituencies · 5% national threshold

National vote (% of valid envelopes, as CVK reports it)

Each change becomes a uniform percentage-point swing from 2022 in every constituency. Lists on 5% or more nationally share each constituency's seats by Sainte-Laguë.

SV/AJ caveat: SV/AJ is pulling in Russian-speaking voters who were split across ST!, SV, LKS and Saskaņa in 2022. Their support is concentrated in Rīga and Latgale, but a uniform swing spreads SV/AJ's gain evenly, so it may do better than projected there, roughly 1–2 extra seats, mostly at others' expense in those two constituencies.

One hex = one seat. In each constituency, seats run left → right in the same ideological order every time.last seat filled in that constituency

List (left → right)	Ballot	Vote %	vs 2022	Threshold	Rīga	Vidzeme	Latgale	Kurzeme	Zemgale	Seats	2022	Change

Show:

Seat split:

Seats run left → right by how far each list sits from Latvia’s average party on the compass quiz, measured along the left–right diagonal. The dashed line marks half-way; 51 is a majority. Past governments use seats as elected in 2022 (or notionally re-run on the 2026 split). On the 2022 split, “At formation” shows the groups as they stood the day that government took office, including MPs who had left their group.

What happened to every list from the 2022 election to the 2026 ballot: who governed with whom, who merged, split or renamed. Hover the dots for details.

Left: each list as it ran in 2022, with its national vote and seats. Right: where it ended up on the 2026 ballot (# = ballot number). Lanes run left-wing (top) → right-wing (bottom) in the same ideological order as the rest of the model; smaller feeder parties sit by their own politics, so some links (e.g. the Centre Party joining Saskaņa) cross the chart. Gold frames = 5% or more: on the left, the 2022 result (Attīstībai/Par! missed by 0.03 points); on the right, the projection from the vote inputs at the top. Sources: CVK, LSM, BNN, OSW, Wikipedia.

Half-life daysEach pollster's latest poll counts; its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll.

Notes: Progresīvie includes Kustība Par! (it's on their list; Gemius still showed it separately, so its 0.9 is added in). LKS isn't running in 2026, so it falls into Other. Latvijas Fakti didn't publish fieldwork dates (published 22 Sep 2026), so its midpoint is assumed to be 15 September. Polls report shares of decided voters; CVK's 5% threshold also counts invalid ballots (about 1% in 2022), so a list polling right on 5.0% would in reality fall just short. The button applies each list’s average to 2 decimals and puts the remainder in Other.

Methodology

Swing method: each list's national change from its 2022 baseline is added, in percentage points, to its 2022 share in every constituency. Shares are clipped at zero and re-normalised only where an extreme swing would otherwise go negative.

Seats: lists below 5% of valid envelopes nationwide are excluded; each constituency's seats then go by pure Sainte-Laguë (divisors 1, 3, 5, 7…). On an exact tie the list with more votes nationally wins (Saeima Election Law s.38).

Hex order: every constituency is filled column by column, left → right, in this order: .

Seats per constituency (CVK decision, 7 May 2026): Rīga 38 (+2 on 2022), Vidzeme 26 (=), Zemgale 13 (=), Latgale 12 (−1), Kurzeme 11 (−1). Votes cast abroad count in Rīga.

2022 baseline: official CVK 14th Saeima results by constituency, as a share of valid envelopes (914,022 nationally); run through this model with the 2022 seat split they reproduce the actual 2022 result seat-for-seat. With zero swing on the 2026 split, NA drops to 12 and LPV rises to 10 (Rīga gains, Kurzeme loses).

2026 lists mapped to 2022: Progresīvie ← Progresīvie (Kustība Par! is now on its list but polled 0.3% alone in the 2024 Euro election); Latvijas attīstībai ← Attīstībai/Par! (LA 9.5% vs Par! 0.3% when they ran separately in 2024); Saskaņas Centrs ← Saskaņa SDP; Suverēnā vara/Jaunlatvieši ← Suverēnā vara; JKP ← Konservatīvie (renamed back to JKP); Gobzema saraksts ← Katram un katrai (Gobzems' 2022 list); Mēs mainām noteikumus ← Republika (the same party, renamed under Hermanis in February 2026); Austošā Saule Latvijai is new (founded August 2025, 0% baseline, so it gets a flat national share everywhere). Other / invalid = 2022 lists not running in 2026 (incl. LKS 3.6%) plus invalid ballots in valid envelopes. Ideology order builds on the earlier 2026 classing, checked against the Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2024 general left–right scores where available (PRO 2.7 · Saskaņa 3.3 · ST! 4.3 · LA's predecessor 5.2 · ZZS 5.8 · JV 6.0 · AS 6.1 · LPV 6.7 · NA 7.8): MMN, SV/AJ and Gobzema saraksts sit on the populist right; the nationalist end runs LPV · NA · ASL. Change it in the PARTIES list.

The compass. Scales (0–10): Economic = left → right on the economy (CHES lrecon). Social = progressive → conservative (CHES GAL–TAN). Russia = 0 “invest in defence against Russian aggression” → 10 “more trade and diplomacy with Russia” (CHES eu_russia).

Stance: 6.5 or more = pro-Russian, 3.5 or less = pro-West, in between = neutral.

Sources: Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2024 (SC uses Saskaņa, JV uses Vienotība), the same data PolitPro's compass is built on. LA, JKP, MMN and SV/AJ (as SV) take PolitPro's own positions (SV/AJ's economic score is our estimate instead, as its programme mixes tax cuts with blocking privatisation), since CHES doesn't rate them; their Russia scores are estimates except LA's (CHES, via Attīstībai/Par!). Gobzema saraksts and ASL aren't rated anywhere, so their dots are estimates.

EU = 0 anti-EU → 10 pro-EU (CHES eu_position, rescaled from its 1–7 scale), with PolitPro's pro-EU / neutral / Eurosceptic grouping as the stance (except NA, shown as neutral: it opposes deeper integration and sits in the EU-sceptic ECR group); — = no score.

Economic and Social stances: under 3.5 left / progressive, 3.5–4.5 centre-left / lean progressive, 4.5–5.5 centre, 5.5–6.5 centre-right / lean conservative, over 6.5 right / conservative. * = estimate.

Centre the compass on:

pro-Russianpro-Westneutral pro-EU Eurosceptic EU-neutral / not ratedestimated (not in the expert survey)Bubble size = national vote; faded = under 5%. Click a bubble to add it to the coalition.

List	Economic	Social	Russia	EU	Source

Russia stance: 6.5 or more = pro-Russian, 3.5 or less = pro-West, in between = neutral. * = estimate. The scales, sources and the EU score: Methodology tab.