Israel 2026 Knesset Election: electoral projection model

The Knesset · 27 October 2026 · polling through 22 Oct · one national list, Bader–Ofer with surplus agreements
120 seats · 1 national constituency · 3.25% threshold
National vote (% of valid votes)
Type a share and every other party, and Other, grows or shrinks in proportion so the total stays 100%. The arrows take from or give to Other instead; only once Other is used up do the other parties give way. Parties on 3.25% or more share all 120 seats by Bader–Ofer, with surplus-vote agreements; Other wins no seats.
Update, 2 Oct: the Supreme Court overturned the Central Elections Committee’s disqualification of the Joint List and Ra’am, so both are on the ballot; the disqualification scenario is kept for illustration only.
Polls used and weights
Poll weights. One latest poll per polling operation; SF+ND / Channel 14 is excluded entirely. Weights use the per-firm reliability model and a recency half-life of 7 days (the site-wide rule; the rule is the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days), recalculated against the newest fieldwork date (22 Oct). Refreshed from Wikipedia every 3 hours; each new poll is checked first.
Live results
Seats run left → right in groups: the Arab parties, the anti-Netanyahu Zionist opposition, Reservists–NEP, Amcha Yisrael, the Haredi parties, Likud and the far-right government parties, in the order this model has always used (the site-wide left–right rule is not applied to Israel). The dashed line marks half-way; 61 is a majority. Shape = stance on a Palestinian state, pattern = stance on drafting Haredi men, as on the compass. Click seats, sidebar entries or the coalition bar to build a coalition.
PartyVote %2022ChangeThresholdSeats2022Change
2022 figures are each party’s 2022 list, as a share of valid votes (Central Elections Committee). Where a 2022 list has since split, each successor gets its part of it by MKs, and the shared list is also compared once, in the line under the group: National Unity’s 12 → Blue & White 6, Yashar 2 (Eisenkot, Kahana) and Sa’ar’s New Hope 4, now merging into Likud; Religious Zionism–Otzma–Noam’s 14 → RZP 7, Otzma 6 and Noam 1 (Noam is in Other). The Democrats are Labor + Meretz, the Joint List Hadash–Ta’al + Balad, Together is compared with Yesh Atid and Reservists–NEP with the New Economic Party. Amcha Yisrael and Haredi Public are new. Hover a row for what each party was in 2022.
What happened to every list from the 2022 election: in government (thick), in the coalition without ministers (striped), in the Knesset in opposition (medium) or outside it (dashed), with the splits and mergers that produced the 2026 ballot. The right-hand column shows each list’s 2026 successor with its projected vote and seats. Hover the dots and government blocks for details.
Every party answers the same 104 everyday and 30 strong statements as Earth Elects’ compass quiz, so these positions are on the same scale as the other countries’ compasses and your own quiz result. Bubble size = projected seats (parties below the threshold are small and faded). Shape = stance on a Palestinian state; pattern = stance on drafting Haredi men into the IDF. Click a party to add it to or remove it from your coalition. Hover for details.
Statements are read locally: “Indigenous” = Arab citizens, “official language” = Hebrew as the sole official language (Nation-State Law), “minority languages” = Arabic, immigration = non-Jewish immigration and asylum seekers (the Law of Return is consensus). Parties in government are graded on their 2022–26 record; the rest on platform and votes. Amcha Yisrael and Haredi Public are new: Haredi Public is graded on its free-market platform (flat tax, privatisation, benefits tied to work); Amcha has published no economic platform, so its economic grades are kept mild. Because “Nation & culture” is read as minority rights here, the Arab parties score progressive on it: Ra’am is as conservative as Shas on gender, LGBT and religion, and its centrist overall score comes from minority-rights topics (nation & culture, democracy & speech, family reunification under immigration).