President · round 1 exit polls
Share of valid votes, undecided and non-voters removed, as the pollsters publish it. “None of the above” is on the ballot and counts here. A candidate wins outright only with over 50% and a turnout above 50%; otherwise the top two meet again on 1 November. No Bulgarian president has ever been elected in round 1.
Iotova projected aheadGyurov projected aheadStronger colour = bigger lead, paler = closer. Each hex names the leader and gives their %.
Where the regional numbers come from. Polls are national only. Each of the 31 constituencies starts from its April 2026 parliamentary vote, handed to the candidates with the assumptions in the table below (e.g. most Progressive Bulgaria voters go to Iotova, most PP–DB voters to Gyurov, GERB and DPS voters, whose parties ran no one, split). The constituency numbers are then scaled together until the national total matches the poll average exactly.
Runoff projection · Iotova vs Gyurov, 1 November
Round-1 votes for everyone else are handed on to the two finalists, constituency by constituency, at the rates in the table. Edit any number.
Runoff calls so far (28 Oct): Vasilev (MECh) has told his voters “under no circumstances” to vote Iotova: Gyurov or stay home. Kostadinov (Revival) says Gyurov will get “not one vote” from Revival, but he hasn’t endorsed Iotova; he expects his voters to split between staying home, “none of the above” and Iotova. Mihaylov (Velichie) is putting questions to both finalists before deciding; Hristanov hasn’t said. GERB has made no call (Borisov’s line is that support nobody asked for isn’t given). The SDS, its partner, said the same on 26 Oct, but its deputy chair Rumen Hristov has since urged a Gyurov vote. The DPS sat out round 1 and hasn’t announced anything for the runoff. Sources: BTA, bTV, Dnevnik, Club Z.
Iotova projected aheadGyurov projected aheadNumber = Iotova's projected share of the two-candidate vote. ★ = leader changes from round 1.
Every constituency uses its own round-1 estimate. The transfer rates are the same everywhere, so a place where Kostadinov is strong (and his voters lean Iotova) moves differently from Sofia, where Gyurov’s base is. Also assumed: everyone who voted Iotova or Gyurov in round 1 sticks with them.
National Assembly · 240 seats · elected 19 April 2026
Not up for election. 25 October elects only the president and vice president. This is the Assembly elected on 19 April, shown for context.
Who came first in each of the 31 constituencies. Seats are shared out nationally by largest remainder among lists over 4% and then placed in the constituencies. Progressive Bulgaria, the party President Rumen Radev founded after resigning the presidency, came first everywhere except Kardzhali.
Turnout was 50.70% (3,360,330 voters). Only five lists passed the 4% threshold; MECh (3.2%), Velichie (3.1%) and the BSP (3.0%) missed it narrowly, so 9% of the vote won no seats.
National Assembly · 240 seats · elected 19 April 2026
Not up for election. 25 October elects only the president and vice president. This is the Assembly elected on 19 April, shown for context.
Every seat in one half-circle, parties left → right. Hover a seat for the party and the presidential ticket it backs.
Party compass
Where the presidential candidates sit on the economy (left → right) and on social values (progressive → conservative). Parties are placed by their grades on the 130 statements of the compass quiz; each candidate is placed from their parties' grades, with the reasoning in the table. Switch to Parties for the parties and which ticket each one backs.
A candidate (placed from their parties’ quiz grades)Filled: won seats in April (bigger = more MPs)Ring: no seats in April
Scales (0–10): Economic = role of the state in the economy, left → right. Social = progressive → conservative.
Source: each party answering the 130 statements of the compass quiz, graded on its record in government, Assembly votes and platform; the same grades decide left and right in the sidebar and the hemicycle. PP–DB is graded as one list. Siyanie, APS and Velichie have little published programme, so their grades are low confidence.
Source: each party answering the 130 statements of the compass quiz, graded on its record in government, Assembly votes and platform; the same grades decide left and right in the sidebar and the hemicycle. PP–DB is graded as one list. Siyanie, APS and Velichie have little published programme, so their grades are low confidence.