Brazil 2026 General Election: electoral projection model
First round, 4 October 2026 · TSE final count · runoff on 25 October: Lula re-elected, 51.79% to 48.21%
513 deputies · 54 of 81 senators · president
Chamber of Deputies · 513 seats
One hex = one deputy, laid out roughly in the shape of Brazil. Each state is its own block, outlined in white. In every state, seats run left → right in the same party order, left-wing parties first.
Parties in a federation (PT/PCdoB/PV, União/PP, PSOL/Rede, PSDB/Cidadania, PRD/Solidariedade) ran as one list, so the tally on the right counts them together. Click any party (below the map, on a hex, or on the right) to light it up; it stays lit on every tab until you click it again or press Clear.
Amazonas and Maranhão: seat totals come from the TSE by list; who inside a federation got each seat there (e.g. PT vs PCdoB) is worked out from the national totals.
Federal Senate · 81 seats (54 elected now)
Each state has 3 senators. Two were elected on 4 October; the hatched one was elected in 2022 and serves until 2031. Seats run left → right by party.
White dot = that party didn't hold the seat before this election. Hatched seats are shown in the senator's current party.
Moro (Paraná) and Cleitinho (Minas Gerais) won governor races in round 1, so their alternates take their Senate seats. Press counts therefore put PL at 28, not the 29 shown here.
Chamber of Deputies · 513 seats
Every seat in one half-circle, parties left → right in the same order as the map. Click parties (here or on the right) to light them up; the middle counts their seats against the majority line.
President · round 1
Share of valid votes (blank and spoiled ballots don't count). Nobody passed 50%, so the top two go to a runoff.
Lula (PT)othersFlávio Bolsonaro (PL)
Flávio aheadLula aheadStronger colour = bigger lead, paler = closer. Each hex names the leader and gives their %.
Runoff projection · Flávio vs Lula, 25 October
Round-1 votes for the knocked-out candidates are handed on using how similar voters moved in the last two PT-vs-Bolsonaro runoffs (2018 and 2022), adjusted for who each candidate now backs. Edit any number.
Follow endorsements moves voters of candidates who backed Flávio the way right-wing voters moved in 2018 and 2022: 70% Flávio, 10% Lula. That only changes Cury, since Caiado and Zema are already counted that way. Treat it as the top end for Cury: before he endorsed, Quaest had his voters at 34% Flávio, 23% Lula, the rest undecided or blank. Datafolha's first poll after round 1 (published 8 Oct) had Flávio 52%, Lula 48% of valid votes.
Flávio projected aheadLula projected aheadNumber = Lula's projected share of the two-candidate vote. ★ = leader changes from round 1.
Every state uses its real round-1 result. Each knocked-out candidate's actual vote in that state is handed on, so Caiado's 12.3% in Goiás or Cury's 4.1% in Amapá count where they were cast. The transfer rates are the same in every state.
Also assumed: everyone who voted Flávio or Lula in round 1 sticks with them, and turnout stays the same.
Methodology
Where every figure on this page comes from.
Presidential totals: TSE final count (via CartaCapital, HubPolítico, Metrópoles, Quenty).
Chamber: list of all 513 deputies (Terra); vote shares by state and list from the TSE final count (HubPolítico), with federations counted as one list as they appear on the ballot; checked against TSE seat totals by state and list (HubPolítico) and national party totals (CNN Brasil, gcmais); 2022 comparison by list from HubPolítico (merged parties counted together).
Senate: Agência Senado list of the 54 elected; 2022-class senators and previous seat holders from Wikipedia, parties as of 2026 (Efraim Filho moved to PL in March 2026).
Round 1 by state for every candidate: TSE final count via HubPolítico (Minas Gerais is login-walled there, so it is the national total minus the other 26 states and abroad, which matches Minas's published Flávio and Lula shares exactly).
History: TSE results for 2018 and 2022.
Runoff endorsements: Poder360, InfoMoney, O Tempo, O Povo, Correio Braziliense, Gazeta do Povo (5–8 Oct 2026); voter-transfer polls: Quaest (2–3 Oct) and Datafolha (after round 1).
Compass: Chapel Hill Expert Survey – Latin America 2020 (Martínez-Gallardo et al.) and Bolognesi, Ribeiro, Codato & Silva (2025), 2022 expert survey of all Brazilian parties.
Compass
Where the two runoff candidates sit on the economy (left → right) and on social values (progressive → conservative). A candidate can sit away from their party; these are Earth Elects estimates, with the reasoning in the table. Switch to Parties for the party compass (bubble size = deputies plus senators from 2027).
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expert survey scoreestimated (hover the table for how)no seats
Scales (0–10): Economic = role of the state in the economy, left → right (CHES lrecon). Social = progressive → conservative (CHES GAL–TAN). Main source: Chapel Hill Expert Survey – Latin America 2020, which rated the ten biggest parties. Estimates: the other parties are placed using the 2022 Brazilian expert survey of every party (Bolognesi et al., 2025), which gives one left–right score. A straight-line fit on the parties in both surveys turns that score into the two CHES axes (fit is tight: r = 0.98 economic, 0.91 social). Novo and Missão are hand-placed. Hover any row in the table to see where its numbers come from. Caveat: CHES is from 2020, so positions may have shifted since.