British Columbia 2026 General Election: electoral projection model

44th Parliament of British Columbia · 24 October 2026 · 2024 results by riding · province-wide vote inputs drive a logit, uniform or proportional swing · first past the post

93 seats · 47 for a majority · 12 regions

Province-wide vote (% of valid votes)

Each change from 2024 is applied to every riding's 2024 result, then the party with the most votes wins the riding.

Find riding:

Swing:

Polls used and weights

Half-life daysEach firm's latest poll counts. Its weight halves for every half-life it is older than the newest poll, times the firm's rating. The box opens on the site-wide rule, the longer of 1.3 × √(days left until the election), at least 7, and 1.5 × the typical gap between the latest six polls, capped at 60 days. Now: 7 days. Type a number to try another.

One hex per riding, coloured by the projected winner. Hover for the riding's numbers.changes hands from 2024Light shade = won by under 5 pointsregion (as on the Ridings tab)set by hand: click a party in the seat panel, then ridings (right-click undoes)

Each party's ridings from most marginal (top) to safest. The number is the winner's lead in points over the runner-up, whose party is in the chip below. Bands: marginal under 10 points, fairly safe 10–20, safe 20–40, very safe 40 or more. Gold left edge = changes hands from 2024; SET = set by hand. Hover a riding for its numbers; with a party picked in the seat panel, click a riding to give it to that party.

Party (left → right)	Leader	Vote %	vs 2024	Seats	2024	Change	At dissolution

Show:

Seats:

Seats run left to right in the same order as everywhere else. The dashed line is half-way. "At dissolution" shows the Legislature on 22 Sep 2026: MLAs sitting as independents are grey, next to the party they were elected for, and the two empty seats were vacant.

From the October 2024 election to the 2026 vote: the government, leadership changes, new parties and MLAs who changed sides. Hover the dots for details.

Left: each party's 2024 result. Right: the projection from the vote inputs at the top. Gold frames mark parties with seats. Sources: Elections BC, the Legislative Assembly, Wikipedia, CBC, Global News.

comparison party (federal parties, other provinces)Bubble size = vote. Faded = no seats. Click a bubble to add it to the coalition.

Party	Economic	Social	Basis

Scales (0–10): economic left to right, social progressive to conservative. Each party is graded on the same 134 statements as the compass quiz, mostly on its record and 2026 platform, so BC sits on the same scale as every other model on the site. The Greens and NDP land left of centre (the NDP in government is more centrist than the federal NDP). CentreBC is a centre-right split from the Conservatives. OneBC is further right than the Conservatives on immigration, Indigenous rights and gender. White diamond = the vote-weighted average party from the current inputs.

Swing: logit (default) adds the same shift to each party's log-odds in every riding, so it moves most in competitive ridings and least in safe ones. Uniform adds the same points everywhere. Proportional multiplies each party's riding share by the same factor. In all three the shift is solved so the province-wide totals match the inputs exactly, then each riding is scaled back to 100%. New parties: OneBC and CentreBC didn't run in 2024. OneBC starts from the shape of the Conservatives' 2024 vote (it split from them); CentreBC starts flat across the province. Seats: first past the post. Parties run left to right as: .