Parliament
Factions
Click factions to build a coalition. 126 seats is a majority.
Left of centre
Right of centre
A what-if: if the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand elected one 250-seat parliament by proportional representation with no threshold, and their parties sat in cross-border factions, what would it look like on today's polls? 126 seats is a majority.
Parties outside the factions are left out, as asked: the various small parties and independents (Australia's polled "Others", less the estimates below). Each country's seats go to the factions only. The Communitarians are Katter's in Australia and the SDP and the Workers Party of Britain; none of the three is polled, so each is held at its last election result (see Estimates). Canada's Libertarian Party (six candidates in 2025) and Marijuana Party (did not stand in 2025) have no measurable vote and Britain has no libertarian party of note, so the Libertarians and Legalise Cannabis draw only on Australia and New Zealand.
British polls cover Great Britain only. Northern Ireland is taken as 3% of the UK vote, split by an estimate of its current vote (from LucidTalk's polls since 2024): Sinn Féin 28, DUP 19, Alliance 14, UUP 13, TUV 11, SDLP 9, Greens 2, People Before Profit 2, small parties 2. The Great Britain average is scaled to the other 97%. Factions: Sinn Féin and the SDLP with the Social Democrats; Alliance (the Lib Dems' sister party) with the Moderates; the UUP with the Conservatives; the DUP and the TUV with the Nationalists (both right-wing unionists, socially conservative and mixed on economics; the TUV stood alongside Reform in 2024); the Green Party NI and People Before Profit with Green-Left. For the last elections, NI's real 2024 vote is used at its real 2.9% of the UK total.
European Parliament seats are not shared out in plain proportion to population; small states get more than their share (degressive proportionality). The formula the Parliament commissioned for this, the Cambridge Compromise, gives every state a base of 5 seats and shares the rest by population with one divisor, rounding up: seats = 5 + ⌈population ÷ d⌉, with d set so the total comes to 250. The EU also caps any state at 96 seats; that cap is not used here, since with only four countries it would bind on Britain alone and take seats straight from it.
The Districts button splits each country's block into multi-member districts: the twelve UK regions and nations, Canada's ten provinces and three territories, Australia's six states and two territories, and New Zealand's North and South Islands. Seats go to districts by population with at least one each, so Prince Edward Island, the three Canadian territories, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Tasmania, the ACT and the Northern Territory are single-seat districts (UK 115: South East 16, London 15, Northern Ireland 3; Canada 72: Ontario 27, Quebec 15; Australia 49: NSW 15, Victoria 13; NZ 14: North Island 11, South Island 3). Each district's seats are filled by Sainte-Laguë from its own vote, still with no threshold, but a small district acts as one: a faction needs about half a seat's worth of the district's vote.
District votes start from each district's result at the last election: UK 2024 by region, from the constituency results; Canada 2025 by province, the People's Party taken as its national share of each province's minor-party vote; Australia 2025 by state, from the Australia page's own seat-by-seat data; New Zealand 2023 party vote by island, each electorate counted equally, with Te Tai Tonga in the South. With the poll average, every party's district share moves by a logit swing: by the same amount as its national change on the log-odds scale, the site's usual swing. A party that has grown nationally grows most where it was already strong, but a surge from a low base (One Nation, Reform) doesn't multiply its best areas past sense, and no share can pass 100%. A party with no last result in a district, such as Restore Britain, takes its national share everywhere, and Northern Ireland uses its own estimate. The cartogram is drawn by hand: one equal hex per seat, each country in roughly its own shape.
One pooled count (the default): each country's faction shares are weighted by its seat block and the 250 seats are shared by Sainte-Laguë in one count, which is as close to no threshold as 250 seats allow; a faction needs about 0.2% of the weighted vote for a seat. Country by country (as in the European Parliament): each country's block is shared among the factions by Sainte-Laguë on that country's vote. With no threshold, a faction needs roughly half a seat's worth of the vote to win one; in New Zealand's 14-seat block that is about 3.5%. The headline vote shares are always this weighted mix, among the factions only.
Each country's average uses the most recent poll from each firm. Weights halve every so many days (the site-wide rule: ), counted back from the newest poll, using each country's next election date (UK 15 Aug 2029 at the latest, Canada 15 Oct 2029, Australia 20 May 2028 as the Australia page uses, New Zealand 7 Nov 2026). Australian polls keep the Australia page's pollster tiers and are scaled to 100%. Polls under 1% of the weight are dropped. A party missing from a poll (Restore Britain, which several British firms don't prompt) is averaged over the polls that list it.
British and Canadian polls are read from Wikipedia once a day; a new one counts once its cited article bears it out or it has stood unchanged for 3 hours. Australian and New Zealand polls are taken from this site's own Australia and NZ pages, which have already checked them.
Australian polls don't report the teals, the Libertarians, Trumpet of Patriots, Family First or Katter's, only "Others". Each is estimated as a fixed slice of Others, as at the 2025 election, read from the Australia page's own 2025 seat-by-seat data: the community independents and Community Strong (the Climate 200 and Voices candidates, Spender, Steggall and Haines) 4.73%, Trumpet of Patriots 1.91%, Family First 1.77%, the Libertarians 0.54% and Katter's 0.33% of the 15.0% that went to others; each takes the same fraction of whatever Others polls now. In Britain the Workers Party (0.7%) and the SDP (0.1%) appear in no poll, not even inside Others, so both are held at their 2024 general election share. Likewise in New Zealand NZ Loyal (1.21%), NewZeal (0.57%) and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party (0.46%), which the NZ page's poll list doesn't carry, are held at their 2023 party vote, and Australia's Legalise Cannabis Party takes its 2025 slice of Others (1.20%). That is how the Australia model itself shrinks independents when Others falls. Restore Britain is in only the polls that list it.
The "Last elections" button fills the same chamber from each country's last national vote: UK 2024, Canada 2025, Australia 2025 (House first preferences, Coalition combined), New Zealand 2023 (party vote; TOP as the Opportunity Party's forerunner). Your Party, founded in 2025, gets the 2024 vote of its five founding MPs and eight other pro-Gaza and Corbyn-left independents who stood: 182,790 votes, 0.63%. The ± figures compare the poll average with it.
Party positions are where each party lands on the site's compass quiz (economic left–right and social progressive–conservative, 0–10): the quiz's Australian parties and its UK, Canadian and NZ comparison parties, so all four countries sit on one scale. The teals use Community Strong's position, and the Coalition is the Liberals and Nationals weighted by their 2025 vote. Restore Britain, Plaid Cymru, the SDP, the Workers Party, NZ's NewZeal, NZ Loyal and ALCP, and the Northern Irish parties are not in the quiz yet; they are placed by hand beside their nearest graded parties (ALCP beside Australia's Legalise Cannabis, NewZeal beside Family First, NZ Loyal beside One Nation, the SDP and the Workers Party near Katter's, Restore just past Reform, Plaid beside the SNP, Sinn Féin and the SDLP left of Labour, Alliance beside the Lib Dems, the UUP beside the Conservatives, the DUP and the TUV beside Reform). A faction sits at its parties' vote-weighted average; left and right of centre follow the site-wide rule (an invisible 45° line through the average faction), except that the Moderates sit in the centre, between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives, although their parties grade more socially progressive than Labour.